3 Day Rally delivered as predicted. "Nice to just see analysts were indeed PENGUINS on CSCO, more than a day late and more than a dollar short, maybe CSCO needed those downgrades, in order to rally today to 39 7/8th. The test is if it breaks out again above $40, then it should run toward $50 and thats a nice 25% gain for a blue chip that will not do a TWA bankruptcy, or bite the dust like priceline.com or netzero and several others (Which I am glad I don't own). AS the next few months of SHAKEOUTS occur, there will be more mergers, and consolidations, and many more ETOYS going bust. The talk will be "Catch Up", which really means the red tickers we saw were "KETCHUP" as the old line companies finally take to the internet, and dominate it by sheer monetary muscle, golden rules: those with the gold make the rules, and they alone will continue to have the cash flows to fund the next level of infrastructure build out, and ramp up, in IT spending, and then control the entire supply and distribution channels all over again. This is the protectionism that Greenspan delivered, the KETCHUP so the fortune 500s could CATCH UP and keep that centralized control....we may once again lose our chance for total freedom, for a totally decentralized efficient economy which we all own, instead of just the institutions owning together with the 2-3% wealthiest individuals. Well if you can't beat them......get a bigger stick." -as I wrote a friend.
Now we hear about HWP warning, but it goes back to the economic summit when all the CEO's (including Fiorini from HWP) were huddled aroung George W Bush, telling him the misery caused by Greenspan so needlessly. Followed minutes later by Greenspan saving face by launching the interim 50 basis point Fed interest rate cut. But knowing it was not enough, later in the day, George W. Bush stood firm with his promised Fiscal Policy change to cut taxes big and sooner, and if we can rely on Senator Lott, these will be RETROACTIVE to January 1st (OR THE END OF THE TAXPAYER's TAX YEAR, and for corporations this may not be necessarily only December 31st) so there could YET BE TAX SAVINGS and therefore more SPENDING MORE BUYING in the corporate world if they do not have to make additional tax payment outlays. That should help, it is needed, and so is an additional 50 basis point Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate cut at the end of the month, though I suspect 25 basis points then followed by at least another 25 basis points interim in February (A month the FOMC does not meet) to again saved face for Greenspan and the Fed, since the general public, and therefore Congress, then no doubt really feeling the RECESSION THAT IS HERE might otherwise be of a mood to make some drastic and LONG OVERDUE changes in the structure and workings of the Federal Reserve....No one should have this kind of power, and REALPOLITIK demands in our global economy that our fiscal policy makers also make monetary policy.
I am,
Truly your$,
-Crystal Ball |
