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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 51.11

-2.1%

Nov 13 3:59 PM EST

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To: Scott H. Davis who wrote (2540)	1/11/2001 6:13:33 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) of 52153

I just listened to the H&Q CVTX presentation. I was able to get sound only (let me know if you were able to get pictures). Solid presentation, maybe explaining why the stock was up over 6 points today. Emphasized what I said earlier - the trial extension was based purely on a higher than expected standard deviation in the blinded results (combined placebo and drug), and the only "cost" is the extra six months delay. (It has occurred to me that one possible explanation for a higher than expected SD is that the drug worked very well - any statisticians care to comment?) He reiterated that the results in the first Phase III were very strong (which they were - those sought after two zeroes after the decimal in the p value). (The new trial is different than the old one, however, as the first trial was monotherapy, whereas this one allows patients to stay on their existing treatments). Aside from Ranolozine a very solid pipeline, with the HDL (Tangier) discovery a huge possible long term prize). Aso in the CVTX presentation it was stated that their Innovex deal was equivalent to a 90%/10% pharma split (with the pharma having the short end of the stick). Interestingly, SCIO today signed a similar deal with Innovex. I'm somewhat less sure about whether the SCIO deal was smart, mainly because they are dealing with ER types that might need a fair bit of "educating" to treat their heart failure patients any differently than they do now. Not clear to me if "just add water" reps will be up to this job. Peter

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