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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: AllansAlias who wrote (57357)1/11/2001 8:56:22 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (3) of 436258
 
well, as a matter of fact, virtually every t/a analysis from outside sources is bullishly inclined, due to the pretty pictures looking good and all sorts of indicators screaming buy. the unanimity of opinion is the only problem, which leaves the contingent doing sentiment analysis as the only skeptical bunch.
the question is, will sentiment be overruled?
i think the remainder of January will continue to be extremely volatile, so you should probably stick around for that.
one thing one needs to remember: the market as a whole has NOT experienced capitulation. there was no 5-8 bn. share day with 30:1 down vs. up vol. and p/c's scaling 3 or 4 signaling that.
how and when does capitulation generally come about? one element is surprise. MOST participants must be looking the other way, shortly prior. the other element is indicator failure. tried and trusted indicators must fail to signal it. you see where this leads...namely that it possibly is yet to occur.
the to and fro right now stems from two influences: prospective rate cuts and oversold indicators, as well as improving internals say to buy. the fast deteriorating fundamental backdrop however raises questions: has it all been discounted? is it time to look beyond the bad news, as the market has done today? (not the first time it tried that). or are things about to get appreciably worse.
you see, no firm conclusion can be arrived at...except to say that the pre-conditions for an eventual capitulation move are in place.
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