HI Todd: Thanx for the update, I been looking at so many things I
missed it..normally the news caues a rush one way or another then
which ever way it went it turns around , the market over reacts on
news..heck the real moves ( the ones that don't correct ) always
happen before the news. I think you got it pegged, you say you sold
calls today ?
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One thing I said a long time ago was that AT&T and MSN were letting
AOL do most of the dirty work and watching to see if there was
profit in it. They both got the deep pockets to over run AOL any
time they want..so my speculation is they have not made up their
minds ...it could be true that MSN wants to back out of the ISP
part..that's the no-profit part.
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ISP on the consumer level will eat up any big company with overhead,
and expences to the point the more users they get the more they
will lose money. Particularly on a flat rate. What they couldn't
grow on a per hr rate, they should have just done the BYOA..
( Bring your own access ) at a flat rate.
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Under the surface there are Collage accunts that are dirt cheap,
computer clubs and user groups ( non profit status ) are springing
up every were..it was the not for profit BBS's that eat up GTE,
and AOL back in the 80s, AOL hung on long enough to roll into
this..did an IPO got some money and people who were never on a BBS,
saw it and went wow..but the people who were on the web before AOL
came in went ( what the hell, and got real red neck about AOL
flooding the internet with people that had no skills and were
running amok like little king kongs ). The internet popularity
grew and this killed off over half the BBS system..many of the
sysops then rounded up loyal users got taxfree non profit status
put in T1 lines and run cost of coming on line way down.
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The bottom line is, the biggest market share will go to who can
frunish something that will get the job done the cheapest.
AOL has to get out of the ISP..thats going to non profit..
it needs to get content good enough to get people to pay for it,
with out having to furnish a dial in. It needs to get add rev up
way up..
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I like SI ..if they said hey we need a small fee..I would likely
pay it..AOL may have a lot of people that would do the same..
for me to go over there would be out of the question, but many
people might.
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The investors may read MSN wanting out as a bonus for AOL..but they
better ask themselves why MNS would want out and not get so
exuberant..AOL has to re-make her self to ever turn a real profit,
it's not in the ISP dial up end , at least not at a flat rate,
a few small mom/pop operaters with a small office, but no
payroll or such, they will eek out a few dollars..I know some of them and it's tough..AOL don't bother them at all, it's the other stuff..the
cut rates ..( the local telco bill being the biggest expence, and
it's a lot too..100 modems cost $ 2,800 plus tax phone bill a month were I'm at )..The connet to MCI via a T1 is bout $1800 The servers
and modem cost for a 100 modem setup is less than 12 months of the
telco bill..but will run you several years figure it at say $900
with up grades, finacing and such, If you get 10 users per modem, ( more than that and you get unhappy campers that bring them selves right into you face)..you got all the other stuff to
so now you got 1000 users ( rate is down to $14.95 and falling )
so figure it up with utilities, and an office and see how much
is left over..and o- your on duty 24 hrs a day, if you hire one
helper to spell you ( as contract labor) and slip arond the taxes on them, still it's not going to leave you much.
Now figure how much more it cost a big co to do it, and it does.
Were is the profit ? What about the bad checks, and the likes
don't leave anything out and remember the local PC club is about
to crank up and do it for $6.95 a month with is considered dues,
they get to use a back room in the Libary, have got the GOV to
OK an increse charge by the telcos of $1.5 to privet users for each line over one, to fund this..so the telco rates soon will be 2,950 a mouth..for my 100 modems..I'l likly have to drop my price..why o
why did I want to be an ISP ... I didn't count on all this non
profit compitition..
Jim
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