Rydex Total Assets Update for Thursday, January 11th 2001:
Regular Series:
SPX Long - NOVA 443.7 Million
SPX Short- URSA 213.1 Million
NDX Long - OTC 2,017 BILLION
NDX Short- Arktos 57.5 Million**new 52 week low**
XAU Precious Metals 25.2 Million
Banking 156.1 Million
Biotechnology 439 Million
Money Market 970 Million
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Dynamic Series (200% correlation)
SPX Long - TITAN 124.2 Million
SPX Short- TEMPEST 25.5 Million
NDX Long - VELOCITY 191.7 Million
NDX Short- VENTURE 18.9 Million
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Today, not only was I stuffed from the slam dunk on the short end (NDX up 4.6%, SPX up 1%), but the XAU decided to add insult to injury down 2%... Not a good day in rydex au contrare read...
This, in spite of the fact that we booked new 52 week lows in the short funds and a new all time high in the SPX dynamic Long TITAN fund prior to this monster run...
Tonight, NDX Short Arktos books another new 52 week low lets see if this lower low read has any merit. Money gets bullish real quick and scampers out of short funds faster than a cockroach evades daylight. BEARISH.
This in spite of YHOO downgrades and lowering of future growth targets.
Now tonight I hear HWP and GTW are both a little light in the earnings loafers and if this market shrugs this off it will be no small insignificant feat.
Some good news for the Bulls in tonights rydex reading:
1)SPX Long TITAN actually pulled back 27 million. BULLISH
2)SPX Long NOVA only moved higher a paltry 12 million. BULLISH.
3) Money Market assets increased on an UP day. BULLISH.
4) Banking TA growth stalled. BULLISH.
The important ratio to watch now is SPX NOVA/URSA. If you see this ratio get to 3/1 Long or greater for 2 consecutive days - I will go 100% Short in Rydex.
Again, in 1998 October correction the ratio was 3/1 Short over Long URSA/NOVA (900/300 million). Right now it is 2/1 Long over Short and this indicator alone tells me while it is possible to continue a guerrilla counter-trend rally higher, it will be nothing of the sort similar to the October 99 run and melt-up into January/March of 2,000.
Rydex numbers suggest we need one more wash-out, but SOX, BKX and NYSE internals suggest otherwise.
Tomorrow is a key day the struggle continues.
Position: 50% XAU Precious Metals, 25% Short SPX URSA, 25% Short NDX Arktos
Best Regards, J.T. |
