Jim,
That is the first time I've seen a prediction that LTO will "dominate" the tape drive business. Past predictions have always said that they may take a 15% share out of DLT/SDLT systems. My own prediction, FWIW, is that the only way they will dominate is if DSS doesnt' get backward compatible SDLT out the door in the relatively near future. Hard to give an exact time for it, but from what I've been hearing, they (DSS) have at least 4-6 months, maybe more. I've heard of people trying to sell LTO, but haven't heard of many actually buying. Nor have I have read even one "real life" story about LTO's reliability. It will take time for it to gain trust. The very issue that some people claim as its advantage (more than one company making it), may turn out to be a disadvantage if reliability is suspect. Legacy issues are still paramount, and not many people want to switch backsystems if they can help it. For this kind of system, people will trade off a little price and even some speed for complete confidence in reliability and compatability.
On the other hand, it is so hard to get any information about SDLT, and dates have slipped several times already, so LTO has a shot.
ADIC will win either way, though, which is why I bought some stock in it. Should be a nice upgrade cycle coming up over the next year or two.
Sam |
