Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum

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To: Smart_Money who wrote (1617)	1/12/2001 2:16:20 PM
From: Lane Hall-Witt	Read Replies (1) of 6445

Smart -- Needham & Co: I actually had a lot of respect for these guys when they came out with the FDRY upgrade after the earnings warning. What I hate are the analysts who maintain a Strong Buy with a $300 price target on some speculative issue, then downgrade after a warning and cut their price target to $15. Needham at least was following an investment rationale by encouraging investors to buy at lows, rather than trying to sucker people in at highs. As for today's ARBA call, I don't have strong feelings about it. ARBA is a very solid company and has executed extremely well. But it's now in a stage of clearly declining growth, and that inevitably changes the psychology of the stock and compresses valuations. Also, the revenue-recognition issue (a growing proportion of term-license deals at the expense of subscription deals, with term-license deals generating more revenue up front) is real and does inevitably create some confusion. The CEO's appearance on CNBC this morning didn't help, as he appeared to be ducking the issue. ARBA is a mixed bag.

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