Puck,
<< Now they're aggressive? LOL. >>
Laugh if you want to. I'm not.
They got aggressive in December 1999 when Jorma "stepped up to the microphone" and projected a subscriber forecast to over a billion by 2002, higher than many, including EMC & Ericsson.
"Nokia had set a lot of records in the last three years - the most phones sold, the largest market share, the highest margins - so naturally, we anticipated another string of impressive stats at the company's Analyst Day in Dallas last December. Still, when Jorma Ollia stepped up to the microphone, few expected he'd swing for the bleachers. But swing he did, raising Nokia's subscriber forecast to over a billion by 2002. This was bold, even by Finnish standards". - Ed Snyder -
This very possibly lifted analyst expectations to the upside, and that's the way analysts are. They - or at least some - were looking for 410 to 440 million handsets in 2000, and forget what others did, impact of component shortages or whatever, Nokia's not surprising to the upside, and the rest of the others, not pitching in, affected the whole outlook for wireless.
Next year they are looking for 525 to 575. Nokia is mid range.
Sub adds are projected by some, particularly EMC to decline next year.
If the industry doesn't do 550 - Nokia (and the industry) watch out.
... and yes, we may get a revision, and if it's downward, we get hit now again, rather than later.
- Eric - |
