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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME
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To: prophet_often who wrote (45491)1/13/2001 9:25:21 AM
From: DlphcOracl  Read Replies (1) of 57584
 
prophet often: excellent post. Let me take your post one step further and summarize an important research note by Jonathan Joseph, the analyst at Salomon Smith Barney who predicted the carnage in the chip sector months before it occurred. Say what you will about analysts, this guy made a very unpopular and controversial call last summer and has earned my respect.

He reports that we haven't seen the bottom yet for the chip companies and that Q1 and Q2 will be dismal for them. Based on current valuations, he thinks they can still drop 25-30% below current levels based on their current and historical valuations when they report earnings. He does not think the inventory problem will resolve itself until October or November of this year and would advise not investing in this sector until late summer/early fall in anticipation of a bounce.

My point and advice to this thread: make certain you are not holding these stocks when they report earnings for both Q1 and Q2. They may be great trading vehicles (and many are up 25-35% over the past week or two), but know when to fold 'em! The chip stocks he favors most are: ADI, IDTI, AMCC, and PMCS. When it is time to buy these later this year, these are the ones you want.
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