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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Uncle Frank who started this subject1/13/2001 6:05:49 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (3) of 54805
 
Results of the Gemstar Polls

The three polls clearly show a trend that there is less and less thinking in our thread that Gemstar is definitely a Gorilla. Take a look at the numbers:


Category          12/21/99      5/21/00       1/13/01

Is a Gorilla         54%          41%           26%
Isn't a Gorilla      19%          41%           46%
Undecided            26%          19%           28%

Total Votes          57           64            57



Those numbers show, in addition to the regularly declining confidence that Gemstar is a Gorilla, that for the first time the vast majority does not conclude that Gemstar is a Gorilla; virtually three-fourths of the voters didn't feel comfortable labelling the company a hairy beast of fortune. Almost as many who voted a clear "Yes" in the first poll voted a clear "No" in the most recent poll.

In the latest poll, nearly exactly half had previously voted -- 29 to be exact. Of those people, eight of them changed their vote this time from "Yes" to "Undecided" and one changed from "Yes" to "No." In other words, one-third of those who had previously voted downgraded their vote. Yet only one person upgraded their vote to "Yes" this time.

15 people voted in all three polls. One of them voted "Yes" every time. Three (including me) voted "No" every time. None voted "Undecided" all three times. Eleven of the 15 who voted in every poll were open minded and changed their mind at least once, sometimes twice. (Ahem. Don't infer that those who remained consistent in their vote aren't open minded. :)

There's a sermon coming up. Beware.

As more and more people are apparently coming to the belief that Gemstar is not yet a Gorilla, I keep coming back to the same issue -- that a Gorilla by definition is spawned only in a tornado. Yet I've not seen a threadmate even attempt to provide remotely empirical evidence that a tornado has taken place. If many of us in the thread were overly optimistic that Gemstar was or is a Gorilla because of a belief that it will become one, that's a risky proposition on which to lay down a bet with hard-saved dollars.

End of sermon. :)

Thanks to everyone who participated in any of the three polls!

--Mike Buckley
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