Haim, I believe that AG has a seat until 2004, or earlier if infirmity hits, until then, the shrub has little he can do. I doubt AG will be interested in another term in three years (he might), so I would say he does not give as D&^% what the shrub think.
As for the market, we needed from May 1999 to March 2000 to break the mania with increased rate, I think it will take more than the normal three months and two fed easings to break the downtrend in the Naz. The NYSE has not actually had any suffering, and the Dow is still vaulting (while a little perching) above 10,000, I don't think a bear market ends with so little damage amongst the Generals.
I think the Naz might have a chance of another good rally into the next FOMC, but not before we relax a little here through a mild retrenchment ( I have 2495 as a "Maginot line"), mostly in the form of ups and down into a low on the 22nd or 23rd, before we start rallying into the FOMC meeting. Whatever "good news" that meeting brings (.5%) will be already priced in, if we get .25% or less, we may have a sizeable disappointment. My target exit from whatever trading positions I still have is 2:15 PM on the 31st of this month (g).
As for Kudlow, I agree with you, but at least he has about as few "Megs" upstairs as the shrub, so he may actually be what will happen. In that case, Oh Lord, have mercy on us.
Zeev |
