Stock attack - Subject 14043
Idea of the day - Subject 14747
... missed those yesterday, don't know how, they can be great ... there are many others of course
By PM this morning a suggestion that Inmet imn.to might look good in a comparison with Aur aur.to, with Antamina developments cited as immediate reason ... sounds like something to look into ... i follow aur through habit as much as anything ... it has decent leverage to the price of copper along with management who have demonstrated the capacity to thrive in hard times .... thinking about how much copper they've hedged, here's a snip from the 10 Nov release -
"The company has completed the mandatory copper hedging program that is a
condition to the drawing down of its $170-million (U.S.) loan facility to be used to
partially finance the purchase of a 76.5-per-cent interest in Compania Minera
Quebrada Blanca S.A. from Cominco Ltd. and Teck Corporation. Aur has
forward sold 154-million pounds of copper at an average price of 87 U.S. cents
per pound for 2001 and an aggregate of 206-million pounds of copper at an
average price of 83 U.S. cents per pound for 2002-2004.
In order to complete the normal closing documentation, the closing date for the
transaction has been rescheduled to Nov. 22, 2000.
(c) Copyright 2001 Canjex Publishing Ltd. canada-stockwatch.com "
Company production is now conservatively ~200m lbs, ~170m from QB alone at cash cost of .51, life-of-mine cc .47 ... so if they sold ahead 154m at .87 that's 134mUS right there, then '02-'04 206m at .83 is 171mUS, total of 305mUS, that should just about cover the 170mUS loan facility ... And, while they've dealt off 75% of possible upside for this current year [at a healthy price of .87], only roughly 33% of '02 to '04 production is hedged, and nothing beyond that, while QB is a minimum 12-yr operation ... so there's leverage there ... which of course can work against you, should copper tank.
It would be useful to know the expected dates for 1. payout of the loan, and 2. payback on QB purchase .. at both optimistic and pessimistic copper price projections.
stockcharts.com
stockcharts.com
... hmmm ... imn has got aur beat silly on the Chaikin money flow, lol ... aur had a little trouble beating its head on its 200-day but it did bounce nice off its 50-day ... imn is flat-lined at 1.95 just above its 50-day, don't know why but the depth right now suggests the reason may be healthy bids at 1.95 combined with market apathy ... could this Antamina setup stimulate some interest, could be eh ... copper moving would do more for the both of them imho ... in the meantime they're not going to excite the dedicated speckie players, to whom turning profit is the kiss of death ... just the sort of stock you tuck away and don't think about much except on Sundays. |
