ANALysts, such as Marry Meeker and Henry, the Mad Hatter, Blodgett, put out glowing forecasts and price targets for a new business concept with little understanding or consideration of the underlying dynamics of the internet.
Rob,
I do not follow Mary enough to know her background, age, etc. It is my opinion that Blodget is a young inexperience man that has never had the opportunity to run a business. It is interesting that brokerage firms will pay people to analized the business prospects of firms in various industries without the analyst having had the needed experience to ascertain anything about the business in question.
For example, Blodget covers Amazon, Ebay, AOL, DCLK, YHOO, WBVN, INKT, etc. It seems to me that Blodget never mastered simple accounting. He really does not understand the income and balance statements for Amazon much less another dozen firms. I suppose an analyst with a good understanding of business models and accounting could make some reasonable assumptions about a variety of firms.
My proof of Blodget's problem is not the fact the stock price of the firms he had buys on have fallen 80-90% but rather their fundamentals never matched what he published they would do. This would not be so bad if he predicted fundamentals incorrectly on three out of twelve firms but he seems to have been incorrect in almost 100% of the cases. He should be able to get 50% correct by flipping a coin. I truly believe that if someone provided Blodget with a firm to run, it is extremely likely it would fold in no time at all.
We have two issues here. One is Blodget tries to be more optimistic on firms compared to what he really believes to satisfy his employer. Secondly, he is not capable of analyzing a firm of any kind. He needs experience running a firm. My point is I believe him to be totally incompetent and so incompetent he does not even realize how incompetent he is.
Glenn |
