I kind of agree with what you are doing because that's what I am doing. Note that CMGI is going to clarify things in a CC three days from now. Below is the information.
I see it this way: we live in a managed economy. It is managed by the FED. They raise rates until businesses collaspe and then they lower rates. Then they start the next cycle and it goes on forever. Each place in the cycle has businesses that are favored and businesses that are about to be destroyed. Where we are right now is the end of the rate hikes and the beginning of the rate reductions. Historically, it is after the 2nd rate reduction that the market really starts getting it in gear. It takes 2 rate reductions to losen up the credit lines and convince the market that the FED is out of the business of choking the market.
What does this mean looking forward? When the dinner bell is rung the big animals get to feed first. That means that all the businesses that are profitable and show the best growth get fed (bought) first. After that the more speculative stocks get bought. This means a return to the IPO market sometime in the near future. I bet any amount of money that the incubators are getting their road shows together right now and at the end of the month they will be making the rounds. We are maybe 6 weeks away from a rebirth in the market.
The great thing, as you point out, is that during the rate hike part of the FED cycle, the incubators were killed. So the beta on the calls is way down. The primary incubators IMHO is CMGI, ICGE and RRRR. Therefore, I think now is the time to buy calls. The reason for this is that the rise of the stocks YTD (20% to 60+%) has not yet had a chance to impact the beta. After a little more rise it will kick in and the beta will be so large that you will have to just buy the stock. Another one for calls, but not a incubator, is ATHM.
biz.yahoo.com
Friday January 12, 5:16 pm Eastern Time
Press Release
CMGI to Provide Corporate Update
Hosts Live Webcast of Conference Call
ANDOVER, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 12, 2001--CMGI, Inc. (Nasdaq: CMGI - news) today announced that it will host a conference call to provide a company update and to review the recent progress of its corporate restructuring on Thursday, January 18, 2001, at 5:00 PM EDT. CMGI will also host a live webcast of the conference call from the company's web site (http://www.cmgi.com).
The conference call and webcast are open to all interested parties, including press and individual investors, and will be hosted by David Wetherell, Chairman and CEO, and Andrew Hajducky, CFO, Executive Vice President and Treasurer. Details follow:
WHAT: CMGI Corporate Update Conference Call and Webcast
WHEN: Thursday, January 18, 2001; 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time
DIAL-IN: (612) 288-0329 OR (612) 332-0530
WEBCAST:
cmgi.com
About CMGI and CMGI @Ventures
CMGI, Inc. (Nasdaq: CMGI - news), a leading global Internet operating and development company, represents a network of nearly 70 established and emerging companies, including both CMGI operating businesses and synergistic investments made through its venture capital affiliate, CMGI @Ventures. Companies in the CMGI network span a range of vertical market segments including search and portals; infrastructure and enabling technologies; e-business and fulfillment; interactive marketing; and Internet professional services. CMGI leverages the technologies, content and market reach of its extended network to foster rapid growth and industry leadership across the Internet Economy. Compaq, Microsoft, Pacific Century CyberWorks and Sumitomo hold minority positions in CMGI.
CMGI's majority-owned operating companies include Engage (Nasdaq: ENGA - news), NaviSite (Nasdaq: NAVI - news), Activate, AltaVista, CMGion, Equilibrium, ExchangePath, MyWay.com, NaviPath, SalesLink, Tallan, uBid and yesmail.com. CMGI @Ventures has ownership interests in 50 companies, including Terra Lycos (Nasdaq: TRLY - news), Critical Path (Nasdaq: CPTH - news), Ventro (Nasdaq: VNTR - news) and Vicinity (Nasdaq: VCNT - news).
CMGI's corporate headquarters is located at 100 Brickstone Square, Andover, MA 01810. CMGI @Ventures has offices there, as well as at 3000 Alpine Road, Menlo Park, CA 94028. For additional information, see cmgi.com and ventures.com.
Contact:
Deidre Moore
CMGI Public Relations
(978) 684-3655
dmoore@cmgi.com
or
Catherine Taylor
CMGI Investor Relations
(978) 684-3832
IR@cmgi.com |
