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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Night Writer who wrote (88852)1/15/2001 3:08:15 PM
From: Andreas  Read Replies (2) of 97611
 
Thread; Now What?

I've got a couple bucks to blow and so here I sit - wondering now what? Dare I risk any more of it with cpq? Here is why I might.
(1) cpq is selling at darn close to 5 year low, low p/e and relatively low peg;
(2) cpq appears to be winning the turnaround battle;
(3) MC appears to be successfully transitioning cpq from mere box maker to broad scope IT company;
(4) strong balance sheet (little debt);
(5) strong thrust into new product development and other "cool stuff";
(6) technology isn't going away any more than my hemorroids;
(7) public sentiment toward cpq and other so-called "boxmakers" is extremely negative (there is something to be said about contrarian indicators and the masses generally getting it wrong);

Here is why I might not.
(1) The pundits are saying that IT spending is declining which will hurt sales growth;
(2) Dell may prove to be a formidable competitor in the server segment and any other segment it decides to get into;
(3) Stock is at or near 5 year low (low priced stocks tend to stay low absent a proven catalyst, which seems to be evading cpq with all the force of a fundamentalist at a Marilyn Manson concert);
(4) too many analysts hate cpq to ever allow it to get out of the doldrums in any meaningful way (ie. over 30);
(5) CPQ stock has become a trading stock with countless resistance levels on its way to 30;
(6) CPQ perceived as a mere box maker which seems to kill the stock every time it shows signs of breaking out;
(7) If any tech stock warns in the future cpq will get killed - after all when you buy cpq your fortunes are dependent on each and every other tech stock out there;
(8) cpq's mantra - "if it goes up a buck sell - but quick!"

So here I sit counting my marbles and wondering "am I feeling lucky - punk?"
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