freeus,
<< Ha! From all the mistakes I've made in the last few months I don't know about that! >>
That's why you'll do fine. You clearly recognize that you make mistakes, and so expect them, can more easily recognize them---and learn from them. Mistakes can be just as valuable as doing things right IMHO.
CYMI: Personally, I'd wait a couple of days, hoping CYMI would correct some.
CYMI is still technically in a downtrend, although it looks like that may change soon if it can close above the 200 day ema, then take out that peak on strong volume:
askresearch.com
Looks promising, since resistance at 30 was taken out on good volume. Still: 8 white candles in a row, overbought Williams, OBV and Williams showing early and tentative sell, and a short-term bearish candle on Friday as CYMI tested the declining 200 day overhead.
Looks to me like the most likely scenario is a small retreat, followed by another run at the 200 day overhead. I would rather enter after two or three day's retreat, when technicals had hopefully gotten oversold. If this happened, an entry 1/16 above the high of the previous day would be what I would look for, no lower.
The intraday 30 minute chart already suggests a correction or consolidation has begun. Alternatively, if you wanted to daytrade CYMI, I would look to enter when the 200 minute was successfully tested; if CYMI fails at the 200 minute, I'd anticipate a further correction/consolidation, and probably an entry a few days down the road.
askresearch.com
On the intraday 1 hour 5 EMA/8 SMA crossover chart, there are now OBV and stochastic sell signals in place, and the crossover sell signal just occurred with the last candle. Note also that the last five hourly candles are bearish, beginning with the inverted hammer:
207.61.23.99
The daily chart with 25 day BB's shows CYMI has been piercing the upper rail, and so a correction back from here would be likely.
207.61.23.99
However, note also that the slope of the BBs has shifted markedly northward, consistent with the recent short-term uptrend; because of this, a correction back from the upper rail towards the middle of the BBs is likely, but so also is a subsequent upside reversal off the mean line, which currently sits at 27 1/4. It would be here that I would look for an entry. Going forward, as long as the BBs continue to be upsloping, the likelihood is that the stock will bounce from the upper BB rail back towards the mean, and back up again; it will likely spend little time in the lower half of the BBs. In other words, when the BBs are upsloping, the stock tends to spend the majority of its time in the upper half, and the mean tends to act as support, and the upper rail resistance. When the BBs are downsloping, the opposite is true, and when horizontal, the stock will tend to move from one rail to the other, with the lower rail acting as support, and the upper rail resistance. There is not yet a bearish crossover signal on this chart, though with daily charts this signal seems to be a relatively late one.
Bottom line: CYMI looks good, but I would rather have a better entry, probably around 27 - 27 1/2. That would coincide with chart/candle support levels, the now upsloping [good sign!] 50 day ema, and also with support from the 25 day BB mean. If CYMI is to continue up, it should not fail there, and conversely if does fail there, that spells the beginning of the end for the recent run-up, and should be considered for a short if the failure is on strong volume.
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RE: Bedtime reading
Hope it quickly lulled you into a long, restful night's sleep!
Glad you found it useful. I have come to rely more and more on support/resistance levels determined by moving averages. Each stock has its own peculiarities here, but there's enough common threads that it can be successfully applied to just about any stock. Also, the particular historical characteristics of a stock relative to its moving average support/resistance levels tend to remain constant for long periods, and so when violated, these events are most often very significant.
<< I just cannot watch things closely enough. >>
Me neither. I've had to step away because of that. Too much on my plate during the day, not enough time to plan things at night, so I'm only trading occasionally. Better to trade 1 or 2 well-planned trades per week, than 1 or 2 poorly planned trades per day I think.
I feel much more at ease now that I'm not pushing the issue. I've been devoting more and more spare time (what little I have!) to reading, studying, learning. I'd like to get better prepared for two very significant events I anticipate are likely to occur: a sharp correction beginning between now and summer, with the indices all reaching new lows and staying there for an extended period; and a powerful reversal and beginning of a bull uptrend in all the markets, which I don't anticipate in 2001, but probably 2002. In the case of the former, I want to play it for all it's worth on the short side, and in the case of the latter, I want to jump in with everything but the kitchen sink as soon as it turns. I expect this reversal will not be generally recognized as well, until it has become well-developed.
<< There's a lot to be made in the market but I can see that from here on in it will take much study and extreme discipline. >>
Keep that attitude and work at it, and I can only reiterate: you will do well.
As always, JMVHO.............
Walkingshadow |
