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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (10186)1/15/2001 9:21:29 PM
From: The Phoenix  Read Replies (1) of 12823
 
Frank,

I think you hit on the issue with this comment...

Again, this is simply because the ILECs and MSOs are the only ones that have overall plant distribution models that, in theory, can support equal
access.

Not only do we not yet have a common architecture in the wireless arena with which we can get critical mass but the infrastructure also has a long ways to go. Will wireless be an alternative broadband access technology - you can bet it will. But I don't think it will supplant other available technologies.

The way I see it, it boils down to...

DSL - ADSL is the flavor of choice. OA requirement will slow deployment of true broadband
MSO - By default created for broadband. It's ready to rock.
Wireless - Still in it's infancy. OA not an issue but critical mass may mean it misses the market window if the MSO's execute
Fiber - FTTB where buildins sit on metro-loops will fly. FTTC ala extended HFC will have a tough time competing in legacy environments but in green-field it will be the technology of choice - if not FTTH.

The way I see it the ILEC's are doomed by OA unless they surrender to it - if the don't the cable industry via "T" will take control once video is positioned as the killer application - and interactive gaming could make this a reality (Playstaion 2 and the new Microsoft systems). Wireless aint got the juice or the critical mass and fiber ain't comin to my old neighborhood in my lifetime.

OG
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