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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies

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To: Richard Saunders who wrote (7851)1/15/2001 9:58:42 PM
From: VisionsOfSugarplums  Read Replies (1) of 24892
 
Wow. Who would've thought a couple of years ago that natural gas could sell at $13.50/mcf.

Estimates out of the brokerage houses seem to be conservative, given the current pricing scenario and supply/demand situation. Conversion to more economical fuels can't happen overnite. However, after winter drilling season we may see enough adds that storage will improve (last year we were still coming out of that tough period of low product prices, companies with no access to capital).

With NG trading at over US$8 still, a lot of analyst forecasts appear low, however the contract is backwardized so perhaps the latter part of the year will see enough supply or other changes to smooth it out.

Hedging is going to be very obvious in the recent fourth quarter and first quarter of this year.

Watching the California situation to see how they deal with high prices.

I ditched KWE because I didn't like some of the deals they did and it's pretty obvious they're a retail stock. However, I still check back on them.

Was disappointed to see BXL Energy (BXL) add a hedge in Q4 at $7.40/Mcf for 2,850 Mcf/day (<30% prod), however their remaining natural gas is unhedged and I like their prospects and recent farm-in deal. Their average price in Q3 was $5.17/mcf, so I imagine they'll still do better than the $5 - $6 full year consensus pricing out there.

Regards, t.
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