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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (38023)	1/16/2001 11:49:31 AM
From: mtnlady	Read Replies (2) of 54805

Talk about spin! Chambers is obviously the 'king' of it.. "``If there is any economic slowdown not many small companies compete against us because they don't get the funding for a startup. Not as many companies take the risk that we do in terms of moving in (and) have the credibility to do that,'' he said. ``Actually in every economic slowdown we gain market share even faster than we do in regular times,'' he said. OK - lets be rational. On the OC-192 front Cisco faces NT.. hardly a start-up and NT is still increasing it's lead. On the router front Cisco faces JNPR.. again.. not a start-up. On the other hand Cisco needs to rapidly gain market share in the OC-192 front to have a chance. I see that chance DECREASING during a market slowdown. The small/insolvant carriers are not going to be buying equipment. The 'big boys' are going to buy from an established vendor - which Cisco is NOT right now (why take a chance on an unproven company? Which CSCO is in the telco space). On the high speed router front I don't see how a market slow down hurts JNPR and helps CSCO. On the other hand a market slowdown depresses stock prices which in turn mean that companies that grow their top line revenue via aquisitions (NT and JNPR do not) are going to be hurt because they don't have the stock 'capital' (funny money) to use to snap up companies. Also start-ups may be unwilling to take weak CSCO stock in an even weaker market. They may want CASH. A slow market hurts everyone but I see it hurting CSCO more so than NT or JNPR. On the other hand... if CSCO got down to the low 20's I may be interested!

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