My bullish yet fair (IMO) response.
<< No, really, all of that is true, except for the AOL part. I'm no bigger fan of AOL than of MSFT. After MSFT mortally wounded Netscape, AOL apparently purchased them just so that they could keep Netscape sufficiently alive to torture it mercilessly. Netscape 6.0 is an incredible step backward. >>
Once MSFT decided to pursue the browser market it was inevitable that their browser (IE) would eventually become the better product. MSFT had a much larger developer resource than Netscape. MSFT had the resources to produce a better product once they put their mind to it. IE beating out Netscape was inevitable whether or not their marketing plan was there to speed the process along.
<< Many Windows users WILL switch to Mac OS >>
More people will switch from the Mac OS to Windows than from Windows to the Mac OS, IMO. Evidence: The massive transformation taking place in the school systems. Windows is now the dominant OS and that wasn't the case a year ago. Whistler will be a major leap forward for the windows OS. Have you seen the beta or demos? You are an AAPL shareholder, so I'd expect you to disagree, but I think you need to open your eyes to reality.
<< particularly when .NET comes out. I think .NET will be as popular as DIVX and metered Internet usage. People want to be able to buy their software and not have to keep paying. And paying. And paying. >>
You don't seem to understand what .Net is. It's not simply a business model shift from license fees to leasing arrangements. It's way, way more than that. .Net is the operating system of the future. It's as big a change and will be as attractive to the consumer and business as the switch from DOS to Windows was. .Net will integrate all components through the internet. The cell phone, the PDA, the server, the PC, the digital camera, the web developer, the software engineer, the car, the digital music player, the set-top box, the dumb terminal, the database, the CRM user, etc. etc.
.Net is the software that will allow the world to fully realize the potential of the internet. There is only one company that can create this product, take it to its full potential and do it quickly enough to make it the standard going forward. Microsoft, IMO.
<< As far as X-Box goes, don't mortgage your house to buy X-Box derivatives. There's simply nothing compelling about this machine over competitive products. >>
I'd say that potential sales of $3 billion are fairly compelling. The x-box has a number of features that make it superior to competing platforms. Even if the market place views it as simply comparable to PS2, MSFT will be very successful. MSFT is a software company and they will employ hundreds, perhaps thousands of game designers that will bring in big $$$. The revenue and eps from the platform and the games will increase the value of MSFT and that's the bottom line, cause Stone Cold says so.
My opinion,
Dave |
