Hi Robert - while I didn't address to you directly, but fwiw, my previous posts have addressed the job cut and order reduction points. To me, if NT did what others did, namely, trimming headcounts when sh*t hits the fan, then one would have a reason to gripe. However, NT has been making proactive and preemptive restructuring, such as the closing down of the N Carolina facilities shortly after her acquisition of BAY in 1998. How about the outsourcing of back office deal? A reduction of C$37MM in the face of a US$8B quarterly revenue seems to be a storm in the tea cup.
You are right, one should not deny there is capex concern in the telecom industry. To say it does not exist is a denial. However, CSCO and NT don't overlap in such a way that one considers they are in lockstep. Besides, JNPR is eating into CSCO's GSR12000. AVCI is also rumbling in the background. I don't see JNPR or AVCI is a threat to NT. Quite on the contrary, considering JNPR is using NT as an reseller alliance, it could be a mildly positive thing. But, like the C$37MM cancellation order, probably no big deal.
Ultimately, except for a couple of questionable quotes attributed to Mr Roth, it appears that NT mgt has been quick to rein in expectation [by lowering her previous Q earning projection by a penny etc] I ve not seen any evidence NT is hyping itself, unless you consider insider buying is an attempt to fool the public <VBG>! So, I think it is reasonable for people to misunderstand you thinking NT is giving undue optimism. That is to say, AFAIK, NT has not made any prewarning on the up- or downside.
Now, to do justice, your instinct may be correct. At the present time, the technical behavior of the stk doesn't look too promising, why, I ve not the foggiest. Is it something us outsiders don't know? Or is it purely FUD? We will know in 48 hrs.
I am hoping it is just FUD. However, even if there is no concern, I see there may be a bit more trashing [so the analysts can save their hinds] before the stk will move again. JMHO
best, Bosco |
