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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: donald sew who wrote (41004)	1/16/2001 6:12:31 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) of 42787

JAN 16 INDEX UPDATE -------------------------- Short-term technical readings: DOW - upper midrange SPX - overbought region OEX - overbought region NAZ - upper midrange NDX - upper midrange VIX - 22.17, oversold region/borderline CLASS 2 BUY(inverse to market) CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO - .56 5-DAY TRIN - 4.86 Per my short-term technicals the overall market is in the upper midrange nearing the overbought region. If the market continues straight up, I would get CLASS SELL signals in 1-2 days. The VIX is also supporting that the belief that we are nearing a short-term top. One thing that was negative for the NAZ/NDX was that the SOX sold off significantly. I have been a believer that the SOX will lead the NAZ/NDX, so IF(I SAID IF) the SOX continues to sell off then the NAZ/NDX should also intensify its selling. Im not saying a huge selloff. On the other hand, we could also look at todays performance relative to the SOX as a positive hint, in that it didnt sell off strongly yet. Right now the MAX-PAIN of various indices are within points of todays close: OEX MAX-PAIN at 685, closed at 693(buffer of +/-20) QQQ MAX-PAIN at 60, closed at 62(buffer of +/-5) DJX MAX-PAIN at 106, closed at 106.53 I use the MAX-PAIN with a buffer, so I dont try to use it to nail it to the point. Basicly the MAX-PAIN is now implying that there really isnt alot of upside nor is there alot of downside. In light of this, I suspect that the major indices will just oscillate within the buffer zones. I suspect that the stronger selling could arrive next week, but still not expecting alot of selling in light of the FOMC meeting at the end of the month. It is common that right before an important announcement my short-term technicals are in the MIDDLE.

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