China is beefing up its coastal air defenses opposite Taiwan to
help tip the military balance in the Taiwan Straits in Beijing's
favor. If a permanent air defense missile base materializes,
Taipei and Washington are likely to consider it an escalation,
sparking a new round of confrontation.
Analysis
The United Daily News, a Taiwanese publication, reported Jan. 15
that China is building a new missile base in the southeastern
city of Zhangzhou. Beijing plans to deploy Russian-made S-300
surface-to-air missile systems on the base and in the future
could introduce more advanced air defense missiles.
By enhancing its ability to defend its coastal military
installations from Taiwan's superior air force, China would
improve its chances of prevailing in a military conflict over
control of the former Chinese territory. Such a plan by Beijing
is likely to backfire, however, by prompting Taipei and its
sponsors in Washington to take a harder line in the Taiwan
Straits.
China has deployed the transportable S-300 air defense system
across from Taiwan in the past, provoking tensions. China moved
several batteries from Beijing to both Zhangzhou and the city of
Fuzhou further to the north during 1996 military maneuvers.
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