Mary,
INTC can easily break below 30 after this week. I think the upmove now is due to short covering / heavy put volume, relief that the news is finally out, high liquidity in the market due to months of cash piling up on the sidelines and good seasonals, and a technically oversold condidtion.
However, the fundamentals are still very bad and no one knows what the catalyst might be for a resurgence in IT spending in general. In addition, I personally have never witnessed such negativity on the part of analysts towards one company, especially an industry leader like INTC. It seems as if they have made a pact with each other to rip anything and everything INTC does in an attempt to drive the price as low as possible so their clients can buy it on the cheap. I couldn't believe it when they collectively wrote "semi's don't react to fed moves, they only react to fundamentals". That is an outright lie. In fact, CNBC reported that historically semi's have the best reaction to fed easing in the shortrun (3months) medium term (6 months) and longrun (12 months). This type of behavior will not go away and when the strong seasonals go away INTC will be drifting. Our hope is that when that happens there will be signs that the fed easing is beginning to show an impact. I believe that can be this spring, not the fall like many are saying.
Did you see some of the new 12 MONTH PRICE TARGETS issued today? They start as low as $27!! They will keep constant pressure on the stock for months to come.
If the PC segment can show any signs of life in coming months we will be OK. But it will likely take an upturn in real fundamentals before we can say for certain a floor is in place, not for other stocks but for INTC.
This is all just my opinion and not worth squat...
take care, |
