Steve,
AMD is entering what looks like the toughest PC environment in history with what is historically the companies highest PE. You seem to forget that that PE's do not stop at zero, they become N/M ( not meaningful ).
I think you have it backwards.
The progression of the vicious cycle (if it is slow enough to be observable), is that as the earnings disappear, the PE tends to go up, as the P of the PE gets stuck somewhere around the book value, and E disappears, until you get to the N/M or N/A category.
But usually it is swift, as the earnings look like they are to collapse, the price goes down, PE goes down, and the next quarter the earnings do collapse.
From this viewpoint, AMD is overvalued.
AMD has been growing faster, earned more money per share, and is about to announce earnings that will likely again be higher than Intel's, while the share price is half of Intel's share price.
If based on this you call AMD overvalued, how do you value Intel?
Actually, Yahoo shows AMD's PE as 6.64. Guess what Intel's share price would be based on $1 to $1.50 earnings and PE of 6.64?
Joe |
