Re: I expect AMD to fall further behind in technology,
Intel has just shot it's wad for the next 4 years with P4, and it barely keeps up with a 9 month old Athlon layout.
and this, combined with a capacity constrained envirnoment
When capacity is constrained, everybody makes money. It's when capacity is in surplus (like now) that losses can occur.
Intel, the company that used to be the king of cost control, is now fielding two uncompetitive chips, Celeron and PIII, and two huge chips, Itanium and P4. The problem with huge chips is that they cost a lot to make. If they are huge but perform a lot better than anything else, it's OK, because you can charge a lot more for them. But if your chips are huge and perform little better (or worse) than the competition, you've got a serious problem. When the other guy can make 50% margins selling parts equivalent to yours at less than your variable cost, you've got problems.
Dan |
