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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 40.56+10.2%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Elmer who wrote (125345)1/18/2001 12:20:58 AM
From: Andrew Shih  Read Replies (2) of 186894
 
Re: "AMD will need .13u to catch Intel's .18u process in terms of performance"

Would you agree that a 1.2 Ghz Athlon DDR is relatively similar to a 1.5 Ghz P4 in performance? Would you agree that a 1.5 Ghz Athlon DDR is similar to a 2.0 Ghz P4 in performance? In 9 months, the P4 may very well be shipping at 2 Ghz. AMD, however, is slated to be at 1.5 Ghz + in the same time frame.

I believe that the most important drawback to the P4 is it's large size. Intel will need .13u to catch AMD's .18u process in terms of CPUs/wafer. Heck, it'll need 300 mm and .13u to match it's own P3 manufacturing capabilities.

Of course, the other important drawback is the P4's marriage to RDRAM. Does anyone truly believe that 40 million+ RDRAM modules will be produced this year? That is what's needed just for P4 targets alone. Of course, Intel should have SDRAM support in around 6 months. That will help the cost side of the equation, but how about performance? Dual-channel RDRAM is actually not bad. SDRAM support will be a giant leap backwards in performance.

-Andrew
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