Gottfried, Tito, Dr. Snyder, Lester E., Kumar, Katherine and Brian.
I just went back and reviewed AMAT IBD data and the DW data. The sector is close to being overvalued at this time at 69.9 percentile. However, the Stock has just broken a double top at $49 today and will break an extended trend line at %50. In comparing AMAT's current data with July-Oct 1996 we note that AMAT was at an IBD RS of less than ten to 27 with a BTB of .70-.78, Orders at 778-952 and shipments at 1072-1311. This time it hit 15 in September '00 with the low price of approx. $35, PE of approx. 14, the last of December before reversing up this month. It took approx 15 months to climb to the $115 this cycle in March and 9 months to decline in DEC '00. Ironically, it fits into Lester E.'s two year cycle.
With Intel coming out with increased capital expenditure of 7.2 million and Welch of GE stating that Technology is the answer for continues expansion, the FED easing rates it appears to look good for AMAT again. I still recall Morgans 4 waves: reduced size of circuitry, copper application, use of the 12 inch wafer and the internet. He stated AMAT will go through these phases and possibly max out in 2006. "The Roaring 2000," stresses 2010. Guess we will have to wait and see.
The upside appears to exceed the downside at this time.
What are your thoughts and conclusions.
Paul |
