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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems

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To: Steve Lee who wrote (40509)	1/18/2001 9:07:24 AM
From: stribe30	Read Replies (1) of 64865

Steve Lee said: That Dresden plant is a huge millstone around AMD's neck. OK, AMD got lucky in the last yr and profited from Intel not being able to satisfy demand while involved in a transition to P4/RDRAM. That undersupply situation is now reversed and Intel is still building capacity (paid cash in full). AMD is now facing rapidly deteriorating ASP's with a big debt bill for its German fab. ------------------- Hmmm... it appears AMD"s marketing department needs to work on a few more people if this attitude is the prevailing one in management at Sun as well :) .I'm not going to get involved in a big argument about this.. I'll leave that to the actual AMD investors to do so, but this is flawed thinking on your part and I feel I need to respond. Luck may have played a part in AMD's success due to Intel's problems, but the fact is if the Athlon had been a failure performance wise in comparison to Intel, it wouldnt have mattered whether Intel was having shortages or not. You have to be able to compete with product, and AMD did this.. and also for the most part execute flawlessly in the later stages of 1999 and for most of 2000. I'm also not sure where you get the "ASP is deteriorating" part.. the ASP was at a lower level this time around due to the bargain basement K6 being sold in the Processor mix (2 mil of them I believe). They are cutting production of that dinosaur out .. and their next qtr will be totally dependent on Athlons/Durons and any of the new derivatives they're promising.. which is why they forecast the ASP to be between 90-100$ - which is where it was last qtr or 2 if my memory serves me right.. They may be flat.. but hardly deteriorating... and since their presence is virtually nil in the server and mobile market, and new offerings are coming out for those 2 specific markets, AMD has a better chance of the ASP going up then it does down (IMHO). "AMD's flash will keep it from going under" - Ridiculous.. AMD is nowhere near going under .. I realize Intel investors and Intel would like that, but thats wishful thinking. AMD will do just fine in 2001 against Intel's processor offerings -thanks very much. But I will agree that flash will continue to be strong for AMD. As an example of this.. AMD and Palm just signed a 3 yr agreement to become Palm's primary Flash provider. Also... the perception of Flash slowing down will hurt AMD is a bit inaccurate.. TO quote from a fellow who runs one of my favourite tech sites: "AMD over the past two years has been very aggressively pursuing long term Flash contracts. What the analysts out there seem completely blind to observing is that a combination of this and the fact that much of AMD's Flash is not of the standard commodity type will mean that decreases in the demand to supply ratio in commodity Flash will really not have too much of a negative effect on their bottom line." jc-news.com Anyhow.. thats my defence of AMD... I apologize for going sorta off-topic on a SUN thread ;) FWIW, I think Sun would be a good ally for AMD to have and vice versa.

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