The state of the rally.
If anyone is looking, AH is starting to get active again, I'm sure the IPO market will get revved up again soon. The fund manager are trip all over themselves trying to get in, they will drive them too far, so it's time to stop playing games and sit back and add on dips, which will surely happen.
It's really obvious now what's going to work and what's not. You can tell anything that was closing associated with dot.com, be it dot.coms themselves, or the development of dot.coms hardware or software, and PC related companies are going to be hurting. SUNW is a perfect example of the above, where as IBM, the king of the old economy technology companies, will continue to reap the benefit as old economy continues to spend to get connect. As the economy slows, companies that add valued, such BMCS, SAP, CA, SEBL, ORCL on the software side will benefit. Plus, the creating of data is not going to stop anytime soon, so, EMC, NTAP, BRCD, EMLX, will be good investments, out of all those EMC will be the laggard due to size, and dependence on SAN. Also, the new network companies JNPR, CIEN, that have embraced optical and have not tried to be the end all to be all, such as NT and CSCO, will also be able to move forward. I think CSCO is too large now, it's as if it is this centuries GM, so as the economy slows it will slow with it. I also think JDSU, the pure play in the optical space and NEWP the shovel market for the optical companies, will continue to be good investments. Also, out of the dot.com fall out, which has pretty much run it's course, there are going to be winners, EBAY and the travel sites, TVLY and EXPE are examples.
What's great about the above and the fact the FED has injected cyclicality in the system with rate the increases, is the PC sector and semiconductor sector will come back, so it's play in the waiting as is Cellular, which is going to very big, but it's going to take time for it to happen. In the cellular space watch bluetooth, I feel it will very big as a value added money maker for the cellular companies, that's why I have invested in XTND again.
Also, the telecom provider space there are going winners, especially so now the some the weaker clecs and xDSL providers are failing, the ones that left will be stronger and be able buy up failing smaller compaines for pennies on the dollars. IN the space I like WCOM and GX for different reason, WCOM is so beat down, I'm betting someone takes them out and GX, is will position with a very modern network.
Greg |
