Jacob: Are you doing your QCOM thing with AMAT!!!(just
teasing you a little here as I remember you just couldn't
seem to find an entry point on QCOM...)
I understand your hesitation at this juncture as the
recent stock movement could yet be another false start.
However, I'm the wrong person to give advice as I've
been in amat since 3/96 riding out the waves. Sure, I've
lost tons on the recent (and 1998) debacle --I even
compounded these losses by loosing 2cts to Gottfried by
betting 40$ would hold a day early... but, hey!
I'm in @6-12$ so I'd rather think I made tons... Now more
to the point, I think if it was a matter of macro-economics
alone, I would be worried somewhat about AMAt (although
I believe the USA are the only true consumers so the recent
hiatus is just that and consumption should resume fast),
however, my optimism at this juncture resides more about
the micro-ecomomics of semi-equip: 0.13nm, 300mm, copper,
etc. should all come online in the next 6 to 24 months.
I think big guys like INTC will lead the way and eventually
everyone will have to follow, even if economic conditions
are not very rosy.
So I'm happy to sit on my rock and watch the waves go
by... and not worry about entry/exit points. I'd hate to
be left behind even if it costs me a few paper dollars in
the short term.
Trilobyte
p.s. disclosure: long AMAT, NVLS, CYMI, SVGI and tempted
by PRIA. |
