Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Olaf Koch who started this subject	1/19/2001 10:53:01 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Tech getting heady on this bounce; profit taking time... Lots of stocks 30-50% DCBers here - profit taking has to be around the corner - I'd be ringing the register on anything that I caught on the dip... fundamentals haven't changed at all & Q1 reporting is NOT going to be bringing good news to tech... I'd expect this NAZ rally to rollover quickly and don't think it breaks & holds 3000 - a good shorting opp if it does as Q1 is going to bring another round of lowered guidance & disappointments imo. **************************************************************** In a world of sound money; savings preceeds investment. **************************************************************** ... that says everything anyone needs to know about how sustainable any tech rally here is. We are NOT in a world of sound money here; our money is very un-sound; if not HISTORICALLY un-sound & savings does NOT exist for the US consumer & the US consumer is the US economy. This bubble was created by reckless credit expansion & easy money. All those IPO's that got pushed thru the 98-99 window were an anomaly - personifying greed & the Rubin/Greenspan fiat bubble. US Consumers have a negative saving rate; consumer spending IS GDP... and consumers are at record debt levels with no savings. Let the economy slow & corporations begin to cut back jobs - as the Auto Industry is; which still has 1 of 7 US jobs related to it; and job fear, high debt levels & no savings will over-ride the attractiveness of any Fed Rate Cuts. Rate Cuts & easy money only throws fuel on the fire of what reckless credit expansion created & has floated here. We must correct our foreign account deficit - this economy and the Market valuations here have been built upon and are presently supported by foreign investment & a historic reckless credit expansion. The US consumer is tapped out & rate cuts won't expand those allready max'd out credit cards buying ability, they won't cure the high energy costs of this winter, they won't cause Yahoo's, or DBCLK's ad revenue's to increase, because all those dot.coms have blown threw their IPO $ and many are out of business; they won't cause all those Telecom's & DSL plays that are now selling at 90% discounts to their former highs to buy CSCO products because CSCO is no longer loaning them money to buy their products & they're out of cash. The massive slowdown in the US Auto Industry is a huge negative factor... the old saying as GM goes - so goes the US has been discounted a bit during the Technology revolution; but has NOT been eliminated... Home Depot comes out & says it expects a poor 2nd half due to the slowing consumer spending & recessionary environment; but the Techies are running up the 100PE stocks here again.... insanity & it's setting up that final Bear Market stage which is the most painfull; capitulation. We shall see; I'd be taking Tech profits here hot & heavy on all further strength & keeping very tight trailing stops; nothing fundamental has come out of any earnings reporting here to fundamentally change the recessionary visibility ahead. This market is still playing the hot money rotation game and the Bubble won't be popped untill cash & not rotation is the final answer.... and it will be.

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