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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: craig crawford who wrote (67235)	1/19/2001 11:18:23 AM
From: Doug	Read Replies (1) of 99985

craig: <O.T> Upto now the concern in the stock market was earnings on a Q by Q basis. No one could forecast or had forecast this downturn.. Yet today ,the same experts are able to predict the Economy in 6-9 mths will be growing and earnings & earnings growth will be restored. Prices are driven by 3 factors, fundamentals, technicals and Sentiment. Currently, the only driving parameter is Sentiment. This factor is getting a boost from 3 sources. The dot.com hype has been replaced by Tech hype. generated by Analysts from the revenue starved Investment houses. This has caused the public to direct their funds into the Tech stocks . Cash is pouring into those funds in same manner as they did in the dot.coms. The Analysts need to lure more money in . In the case of the dot.coms ,that lucre was based on extrapolated revenue forecast 2 years out and more. This time, it is earnings revival six to nine months out. Neither the stock market , the Analysts or A.G can predict what the Economy will be in 6-9 mths time. The only fear I have about a market driven by sentiment is that it is never stable and can spin around quite easily leaving many hurt.

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