Ted; I mused at the mod thread how the past yr AMD had been issuing profit records and such on very good execution.. yet their stock slumped.. now they have a reduced earnings in this past qtr, and all of a sudden everyone is buying it..
This was Techie Guys response to that.. I figured it would be applicable to your puzzlement about it going up on so-so news.. I'd have voted this for the Cool Post of the Day if I knew how (is there even a way to do that?<grin>)
Message 15206279
Scott,
In regards to TG's post, my response to his three main points is as follows:
1) No
2) No
3) Maybe, a little.
These points are important only if your focal point is to best Intel in a competitive way.
The most significant part of TG's post is as follows:
I think that Joe Osha summarized the situation valuation quite aptly:
"The stock is priced assuming a revenue/profit implosion in the future, that is quite unlikely to happen".
I said repeatedly on the AMD threads from June, 2000 going forward, there was a very serious problem with the lowered EPS expectations for 2001. The faltering of the AMD stock price tracked those lowered projections. Typically, no investor wants to buy a stock that is expected to have less earnings the next year. Ultimately, it didn't matter why the lowered expectations, but that they were expected.
Unbelievably [to me], any discussion re future EPS numbers was pretty much ignored. Its then that I realized that the mod thread was no longer an investment thread but a techie one who's main purposes was to discuss the latest chip innovations and to outcompete with INTC.
What Osha is now saying is that the very worse is not likely to happen, that future EPS estimates probably will level off, and not go down, and that they may even go up next year.
ted |
