Hi QS,
The USIII's are in beta and the beta sites are positive. This is no big product delay and no one is gaining ground in the server market because the USIII's aren't out on the big systems yet. So what. They have been shipping USIII's on workstations for 1 quarter now and they are back-ordered on them. I've played with them & they are really good workstations. Worth the price. Sales is jazzed about them. New products, old products, who gives a sh**??? They are selling so fast they are back-ordered. Compare this with 1998.
There's no tap-dancing in Menlo Park. Don't believe it. They are in a different league earnings-wise than HWP,INTC,&MSFT. Look, they've already taken an undeserved hit from the market even AFTER blowouts in the last 2 quarters. The company is GROSSLY undervalued in the market.
I smell collusion.
You have to understand that there is a qualitative difference between the situation Sun is in and all the others:
o HWP - no new IDEAS (let alone products), no idea what to do outside of selling more toner.
o MSFT - Windows/NT etal. is a dead issue in the corporate mkts. They're putting money into game controllers.
o INTC - bad execution (where's the vaunted Merced?) production problems (slower-than-expected-pentiums)
o DELL - once a screwdriver company always a screwdriver company. Now Sun is entering sub $1000/server mkt
o CPQ - don't ask don't tell/they're still in the soup w/tandem & digital leftovers.
You see, QS, there are solid, fundamental REASONS why these companies under-perform, or that they have lost their momentum/dynamism. I didn't include IBM, because I believe they are still a competitior in the big systems market. Don't forget, that market is still only 5% saturated.
All this bickering over the numbers, what they "should be" and "why they aren't" is just so much analyst jaw-boning. Most of them are too stupid to walk and chew gum at the same time, let alone trying to understand the large server market. You remember that they dismissed Sun before??? Why was that anyway??? It was because of the "looming giant microsoft" who was going to "commoditize the server market" and "put all the Unix vendors out of business just like they nearly did to Apple". Where are those "brilliant market analysts" now?? Probably either laid-off, selling insurance, or re-employed @SG Cowan.
Sun doesn't need to "explode on the scene" anymore. They are a big cap giant in the industry now and they can quietly go about their business of making lots & lots of money.
If USIII falls flat on it's rear-end, I'll start getting worried. Until then I'm sticking to my earlier statement. $450B cap is on the way. |
