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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board
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To: Jack Jagernauth who wrote (14370)1/20/2001 10:47:47 AM
From: OldAIMGuy   of 18928
 
Hi Jack, Your questions are excellent and valid. However the necessary means for answering those questions still elude us most of the time. During times of high market stress, both market highs and lows, many times we lose whatever perspective we might have had under more normal circumstances.

I personally believe that Year Two Thousand was an aberration, a market bubble and collapse. It has also been a "learning experience." Bubbles don't come along with every market cycle but do happen about once a generation. For most investors, sitting out the entire year and earning money market rates would have put them much further ahead than they ended up.

If you Fly with the Bird, you Crash with the Bird.
That was a saying we had in my youth when drinking too much Thunderbird wine! It left a nasty hang-over, just as Y2K did.

Although it's difficult to gauge 3 to 5 years out, if one starts with a macro-economic view and works towards investments that will benefit during an extended period of time, then we can weed out all sorts of bad ideas. This needs to be done initially and repeatedly. It's best to have something in which we can have confidence in the first place, but we need to review it periodically to make sure the fit is still good.

Best regards, Tom
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