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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: Rande Is who started this subject	1/20/2001 11:02:09 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (5) of 57584

Why DOLLAR FALL is very bearish in near term. In the last several weeks many investors have forgotten about the weakening dollar. This is always a pre-curser to hard times in tech stocks. I was hoping for the past 5 weeks that it would hold a range but lately it has broken a support level. I have always used 2 indicators to show where a market could be 3-6 months out. Given this event and the Japan markets lack of rally tells me TROUBLE IS LURKING!! No I am not saying to sell all long positions but what we had over the last 2 weeks may be a serious BEAR TRAP like what we has in early December. I was PRAYING back then that 3000 was the beginning of a rally to 3800 range, we actually rolled over to a new low in the NASD! GO FIGURE! Yes I used the recent strength to sell heavy longs and set up for a SHORT PORTFOLIO until I see a change in the earnings outlook. Personally I have heard NOTHING, and I repeat NOTHING among the reports lately to tell me EARNINGS COMPRESSION is over. NT actually lowered their earnings and revenues going forward and most never realized that they lowered these numbers once already! I am afraid of what JDSU and CSCO may say, but by the action lately in this rally its obvious 75% of this rally is RETAIL! Maybe its easier now that we are off the bottom to swing 70% on the short side and 20% on the long. Its easy to get complacent in a long position that slowly goes down, but when you are short you have to be quick, and vigilant for any outside moves but in this market being QUICK is better to preserve capital. I heard that PCG will be filing for bankruptcy on monday, which financial institution will announce they hold their NOTES?? Its important to realize ANAL-YST and CNBC have calmed down and are not overdoing the FEAR factor anymore, perhaps its because CNBC has had its worse ratings over the last 5 months since 91! The funds have had the most outflows since fall of 98, they are looking out for themselves now and it shows in the coverage. But I feel after analysing the market move on friday and over the last 9 days we will break the 2200 level and make a new low before we see 3500. I had hoped and prayed that market conditions would have changed but as of late I think PAIN will be back in fashion perhaps as early as 1/30. Good luck all!! I am not as heavily short as I will be come next friday.

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