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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 160.52-4.9%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST
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To: WTSherman who wrote (9345)1/20/2001 12:02:58 PM
From: scott_jiminez  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
This is understandable, since it would seem that over the last 8-12 years this has been the case. However,....it ain't necessarily so.

This is the essence of the responses to my position. To phrase the response in more familiar tones, and in terms eerily similar to those referring to the semi cycle last Spring, 'this time is different'.

Folks will cite economic data describing a precarious house of cards and impending collapse. The New York Times article on equity in home ownership is completely consistent with the tone of columns, written under the same masthead, by Floyd Norris et al. regarding economic dire straits. These columns have been appearing for probably 10 years...a period of complete economic collapse of the American economy....

Nine months ago we all fooled ourselves into believing the semiconductor equipment cycle would be longer than usual. This time is different. We learned the hard way for such presumption. Now many believe this down turn will be different and presages a secular and historical change in economic patterns. This time is different.

Perhaps.

Or perhaps we haven't learned much from our very recent lesson in shortsightedness.
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