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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.47

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Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: Doug who wrote (67340)	1/20/2001 2:01:01 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Doug: I wouldnt try to interpret the two markets to that level of detail. I only pull up that Nikkei chart once and while to remind me that bear markets can have significant rallies and to get some perspective on possible retrace levels. Even though the markets are supposed to be forward looking, I think that in recent years the focus has been shifted to the opposite, extreme short term trading and sector rotation. I don't think that sector rotation game will be enough to move the market higher over the longer term, and I still expect the major trend to be down for at least a year or two. Corporate/consumer debt levels are just too high to sustain a major move imo. To pay off the current debt levels without a significant market downturn, the economy would have to ramp for another 10 years from here with people actually saving money or paying off debt in the process. Baby boomers are starting to retire (or get laid off) and I see a reduced tolerance to market risk if any lessons were learned in the last year. M.

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