Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 160.52

-4.9%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9343)	1/20/2001 5:40:24 PM
From: Math Junkie	of 10921

"I claim there is no 'textbook' downturn or recovery within the SEM sector." You could be right. I only used the term because you did. You have now clarified that you were not referring to this industry, but that still leaves the problem that there is no textbook for recovery in the overall economy either. Why? Because history shows that when the Fed has instituted a tightening program, a recession has resulted about half the time. So it's a crapshoot. "And how much data is there anyway...1, 2, maybe 3 cycles? " The boom-bust cycles in this industry go back much farther than that, and they have not always required a recession to produce them. Anyone who wants to claim that it's different this time has a heavy burden of proof. "I believe the SEM stocks fell in anticipation of an event whose severity and duration will be significantly more moderate than expected. Bookings may go down a bit more but by March or April they'll turn...The sector will recover without EVER having more than a ~20% decline in bookings. " I agree that bookings could bottom by March or April. But between now and then we still have to see the reports for December, January, February, and March bookings at minimum. And yet you say that we will see only an additional 10% decline divided between those four monthly reports. That's going out on one heck of a limb, my friend. The other problem with that argument is that equipment bookings lag chip sales, chip sales lag sales to the distribution channel, and sales to the distribution channel lag end-user sales. When economic growth starts increasing again, all those time lags pretty much guarantee that the pain will not be over for semiconductor equipment companies until months later.

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