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Technology Stocks : Flash Memory - Players & Prospects
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To: hueyone who wrote (35)1/21/2001 4:51:37 AM
From: wily  Read Replies (2) of 50
 
Flash notes from AMD conference call:

-4Q revenue grew 66% yoy, 9% sequentially
-Y2000 revenue grew 100% from 1999
-73MM units shipped, up only slightly from Q3
-average bit density grew significantly at +12.6% sequentially
-ASP's up qoq, while cost/bit decreased
-bit growth was 75% yoy, in-line with projections
-Demand for AMD Flash is broad-based and strong
-Except for PC segment in which we have a small presence, all segments showed strong performance in Q4
-2001 bit growth appears to be tracking at 100%
-Capacity expansion plans would be hard-pressed to keep up with this demand
-2000 Flash market was $10.5B from $4.5B in 1999
-SIA projection of $15B in 2001 seems attainable
-Expect 40% revenue growth for 2001
-Q1 [revenue] outlook is flat to slightly positive sequentially, (significantly up yoy)
-Going into 2001 with an outstanding product portfolio and excellent execution with aggressive product and technology roadmap. Customers have responded by awarding us with: Supplier of the Year award from Samsung and President's Award by Citgo [not sure of the name]
-Just announced a multi-year agreement with Palm to be their primary Flash supplier

My comments:


SCENARIO I: 40% growth in bit density

	units shipped	average density		Mbits 		Revenues	
	(millions)	(for example) (Mb)	shipped		(millions)	ASP
						(millions)

1999								$675
2000	73.0		64			4672		$1350		$18.49
2001	104.3		89.6			9344		$1890		$18.12

SCENARIO II 60% growth in bit density

	units shipped	average density		Mbits 		Revenues	
	(millions)	(for example) (Mb)	shipped		(millions)	ASP
						(millions)

1999								$675
2000	73.0		64			4672		$1350		$18.49
2001	91.3		102.4			9344		$1890		$20.71


frontiernet.net

I don't know what their average bit density is -- I just used 64Mb as a reference point. Same with total Flash revenues -- I used 15% of the 1999 $4.5B number -- again, it's just a reference point for seeing what his projections mean for ASP based on bit growth and revenue growth projections.

He's basically calling for flat ASP's, although this depends very much on growth in bit density. The latter grew 12.5% sequentially in the last quarter, so my 40% number may be conservative.
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