Bill,< THE BEAR MARKET IS OVER!!!> Take it from a computer:
The following is an unbiased analysis of the NASDAQ 100 Futures Fri 1/19/01
futures.tradingcharts.com
Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.
Additional Analysis: Market trend is UP.
Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average. WARNING: Market momentum slowed down on this bar. This is indicated by the fact that the difference between the two moving aveage lines is smaller on this bar than on the previous bar. Its possible that we may see a market pullback.
Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.
WARNING: Market momentum slowed down on this bar. This is indicated by the fact that the difference between the two moving aveage lines is smaller on this bar than on the previous bar. Its possible that we may see a market pullback.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.
Additional Analysis: The market is overbought and appears to be encountering resistance. Look for a top in this area. Confirming this, the market just signaled a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high.
Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.
Momentum Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (200.50) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is in bullish territory.upside move is likely. However, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here suggests a downside move is possible.
Rate of change Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (8.07) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is in bullish territory. However, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here suggests a downside move is possible.
Comm Channel Index Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: CCI (173.15) recently crossed above the buy line into bullish territory, and is currently long. This long position should be liquidated when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region.
Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (173.15) is currently long. The current long position position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero. The market just signaled a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high, suggesting closing any long positions here.
ADX Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is down. A falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.
DMI Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is greater than DMI-, indicating an upward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.
Additional Analysis: DMI is in bullish territory. However, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here suggests a downside move is possible.
RSI Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 55.57). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.
Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 55.57) suggesting a possible market decline. Further, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here makes a downturn in the market even more likely
MACD Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bullish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bullish territory. However, the market just signaled a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high.
Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.
Volume Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.
Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP. A bearish key reversal off a 5 bar new high here here suggests a decline.
Stochastic - Fast Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed below the SlowD line; this indicates a sell signal. The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 87.92); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. SlowK is showing the market is overbought. Look for a top soon. The short term trend is DOWN. SlowK was down this bar for the first time in a while. Its possible that we may see a down move here. if next bar's SlowK is also down, then a possible top may have been established.
Stochastic - Slow Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 88.61); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. SlowK is showing the market is overbought. Look for a top soon. The short term trend is DOWN. SlowK was down this bar for the first time in a while. Its possible that we may see a down move here. if next bar's SlowK is also down, then a possible top may have been established.
Swing Index Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.
Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.
Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets.
Note: The above analysis is computer generated from mathematical formulae, and is provided for educational purposes only. |
