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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (936)	1/21/2001 12:13:50 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 12411

I think that is being a bit harsh. Many of "us" contrary investors have only been so since April 98 which IMO was the true top of the market. From that time until now, more stocks were dropping than going up if you were playing it that way. There was no shortage of stocks to short that dropped steeply and provided good, no, Great gains. Many of us were mainly 100% long all the way up until that time. Only then did we start mixing longs and shorts. On other hand, many of these celebrated "market timers" simply repeat ad nauseum that the market is going up which works in a bull market only. The failure of these people to see the warning signs and more importantly to keep repeating this line over and over again since March while we dropped and lost 2 years worth of gains should be viewed as bordering on criminal. Many of the sheep that listened to these people lost a lot of cash. Check the posts. This guy was screaming buy at NASDAQ 5000, 4600, 4000, 3500, 3000 and 2500. Of course sooner of later it will really be a bottom but how many still have powder left? Also the lack of time frames means a lot too. I can predict DOW 30,000 if I don't have to say when. I imagine sometime in the next million years we will get there but is it any use to anyone alive today? FWIW, I do think we put in a meaningful bottom recently but I didn't start posting I was looking for one until Late December which was when myself and a few others saw the turn coming. I think that is more important than to just keep playing the same record over and over again until proven correct. I also don't think we are out of the woods yet as I believe we are simply doing a wave 4 counter trend rally and we will at least revisit the old lows and possibly slightly lower by this summer BWDIK. I personally think you are a much better market timer than many of those you comment on. At least you play both sides and keep an open mind. Good Luck, Lee

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