Nice charts, as usual. I was looking at the same thing myself, as you probably guessed. I think Friday was probably just a pause. I've concluded that this is a large, intermediate-term bear market rally based on the evidence, and it would be logical for it to have the strength to pierce the Sep 1 TL before it wraps up. It doesn't have to interact with THE bear market downtrend line to launch the next leg down; I think there's plenty of resistance to turn it away before it gets there. But I don't consider this Sep 1 TL strong enough to hold things back here.
Of course, trade it as you see fit. It's an excellent trade setup regardless. Nicely defined entry and stop-loss points. It's just that you and I both had been expecting a significant bear market rally, and despite the fundamentals making me expect it a little later, it arrived when the technical conditions permitted it. While we are now certainly back into overbought territory on shorter timeframes, the peek into the weekly rear-view shows how little this bounce has really done.
Again, I've made plenty in the past few years. I merely want to preserve it, maybe grow it at traditional low double-digit rates over the next few years. I'm looking for the no-brainer entries, and I don't know that this is one. My patience and lack of greed are quite useful, makes me kinda like a cat - willing to sit still for endless hours, waiting for the bird to make that *one* dumb move, then WHAMMO!
Come a little lower, birdie...
BC |
