Good Afternoon Lee,
>>I personally think you are a much better market timer than many of those you comment on. At least you play both sides and keep an open mind.<<
Thank You Very Much for this statement, I am Grateful for your acknowledgment. And it plays into my response to your post. I try very hard to deveople both sides of my brain when it comes to the markets and not to depend on any one particular side. So I spend sometime reading and developing a number of scenarios that anticipate how the year ahead might unwind. Then watch, invest and see which fits....!
It allows for flexibility. I recommend the habit and suggest Peter Schwartz's book as an excellent beginning: "The Art of The Long View' - Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, put out by Doubleday in 1991.
>>I think that is being a bit harsh. Many of "us" contrary investors have only been so since April 98 which IMO was the true top of the market.
In order to be a good contrarian one also has to make good investment choices and the timing of entries/exits. Counter trend trading is a hard way to be a hero. Picking the bottom of a trend..., taking a position.., and being good enough to be right..., means you've just gotta be "GOOD"....!
It is true that the advent of 'bear funds like Tice's and the Rydex Funds, etc., are very "New" to the investment community since about 1998(?). And their marketing campaigns have pulled in enormous amounts of the publics capital. They make their living off the fund charges and their customers are supposed to make money by riding the funds timing abilities into the sunset. I feel Tice's type of mutual fund is a rip-off, and nothing more then a marketing tool and a "Ruse." I've never taken the time to chart performance against their marketing surges, but I doubt the publics return is that remarkable.
ONE PROBLEM..., they never tell the client when to get out.
Against these young bears are slew of old mega characters like Elliades, Prechter, Granville and James Dale Davidson, Ravi Batra, Harry Browne, Howard Ruff, Crawford, Stack..., ever hear of Dr. John L. King....?
Lee, No Doubt these people are very capable and ernest in their endeavors, but they're only one aspect of the brain and being drawn into the spiders web makes it very difficult to escape. It appears the human investment psyche is drawn through fear towards the moths light of Tice and the bears and finally into the silken webs. The Wolanchuk types are much harder to find, and they seem to survive and make money, that "means you've just gotta be "GOOD"....!
Except for Timers Digest and Hulberts work there are scant methods of Knowing who's actually "GOOD." |
