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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: gdichaz who wrote (38246)1/21/2001 2:23:57 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Cha2,

<< Palm ... only time will tell if the camel that is Symbian (of which Psion is the "brains") >>

I just posted a couple of articles on the Palm Symbian alliance (?) here that you might be interested in reading:

Message 15219121

<< The safest way to participate in this as in other wireless may be through Qualcomm, since Qualcomm works with all of the current players (and even has Bluetooth in its chips and software). >>

With 12% market share for CDMA worldwide (and stalled), and with their largest market the US (which has relatively low prospects on the short term for wireless data (compared to Asia & Europe) ... I don't see QUALCOMM as the best way to play in the Handheld Game in its early stages .... but I've got the QUALCOMM base well covered (as well as holding a much smaller stake in Microsoft).

As a CDMA user I'll probably be an early adopter of either the QUALCOMM enabled Kyocera Smartphone or Samsung's equivalent. Unfortunately, my carrier of choice, Verizon, has yet to qualify a Samsung (or Neopoint) model. Samsung makes a heck of a phone.

No Symbian in my near term future because it won't support CDMA for another 18 months or longer from the looks of things. I'll be getting my first WID from "CDMA and the Seven Dwarfs" as Bill Gates would say.

We here in the US tend to overlook the fact that wireless data is already in rampant tornado.

15 Billion G-Mails were transmitted last month on GSM networks (and a batch more similar messages on DoCoMo's 'i-mode'.

15 Billion is 15x the volume transmitted in April 1999 and 5x the volume of one year ago, and there is no end in site.

In one year the number of GSM data messages sent per subscriber per month increased from 10 to 30.

Add to this the fact that by the end of 2002, if not 2001, virtually every phone delivered worldwide will be web enabled (WAP/i-mode and/or others) and ...

This is a tornado.

The "safest way to participate in this", right now, IMO, is Nokia, the King of handsets (wireless razor blades), who has really pioneered "messaging" which is todays wireless data 'Killer' app, and enabled the wireless data tornado.

Not only does Nokia have > 2x market share of their next nearest competitor and growing same, but they also have 2x the margin of their next nearest competitor. That seems to me to be a reasonably safe way to play this wireless data game ... but not the Hand Held Game ... YET.

I'm looking forward to see what this one is all about:

"a Palm-on-Symbian device is in the works, and should appear in the form of a Nokia smartphone for the US market".

... but as the article I linked also states:

"... as the trickle of all-in-one rivals from Panasonic, Nokia, Ericsson, Sanyo and Motorola turns into a flood later this year... "

- Eric -
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