Cell, the late February early March low will depend a lot on how far we get here, did we reach the january top at 2850 (or just under it) last week, or do we have another run to 3050 (or there about), if the latter, then maybe, just maybe the decline will stop at 2250 or so, if the former, I fear that the 1900 might indeed be put to the test. If we get above 3050 and hold there, then the February reaction should be mild and we could even have a very strong spring induced by Fed additional rate reductions. I have a low probability of this scenario evolving, however.
I hope you bought the January 3rd bottom, it was quite a very nice trip, thank you.
By the way, I hear everyone chanting "don't fight the fed's" instead of how are YOY earnings comparisons going to be and what kind of "looking forward statements" we are going to get. My experience has been that Fed's easing during non recessionary times, should indeed be heeded at once, fed's easing that occur just as a recession sets in should be waited on for at least the second if not the third easing step. Of course, we did not have many example of the latter case, but if memory serves, in thoses cases, the market eventually (as measured by the Dow, I do not remember the Naz numbers) bottomed another 20% bellow the lows at the first fed easing.
Zeev |
