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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum
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To: lee kramer who wrote (2519)1/22/2001 12:29:39 AM
From: Kathy Riley  Read Replies (2) of 6445
 
Living in Northern CA very close to Silicon Valley, I can tell you
in my opinion, there is big reason to be concerned. Its amazing to me not much gets posted. What CA is hoping
for is to sign some longer term contracts and get set pricing, but even then we are still facing natural gas shortages. PGE on Saturday was going to go to 6 hours on
6 off, 6 on and 6 off. That got avoided when the PUC said
no and forced PGE to provide power until 1/29. PGE was ready to just use what they have. We can't exactly just
build more power plants overnight. In my opinion only, I think summertime gonna get real crunchy with heat waves. Its a MAJOR DEAL. CA is 6th largest economy in the world.
The manufacturing association of Silicon Valley estimated 100 million (if my memory serves me) from one day. This is our third day of stage 3 alert, meaning rolling outtages any time. Getting a little alarming I would say. Its a situation to watch very very closely as traders. Calpine is working on repairing a plant that is in my area, estimated time of completion, SUMMER of 2002.
Thats a friggin year and a half away. The only reason that
suppliers would even negotiate on price is thinking down the road to when demand equals supply. CA is trying hard to negotiate five year contracts for power. High tech companies in the valley need electrical and water
as resources for staying here. This problem has huge ramifications that will only be understood as time goes on. In the meantime, as a trader I remember every moment of the day how big a deal this truly is as to not get too sucked into the seemingly "everything is better than we thought mentality".
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