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Pastimes : The New Qualcomm - write what you like thread.
QCOM 171.54+0.4%Nov 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: Yamakita who wrote (2549)1/22/2001 4:38:40 AM
From: Maurice Winn   of 12231
 
Visesh gets it wrong...<...The Nasdsaq's dismal performance, he contends, reflects irresponsible monetary policy by the Fed. Although Greenspan often is perceived as the economy's savior, Murphy believes it was Greenspan's paranoia about the Y2K bug that triggered the Internet bubble in the first place.

"Greenspan ended 1999 in a panic about Y2K," Murphy said in an interview last week. "Because of that, he started pumping up the money supply at literally a 50 percent annual rate in October and November of 1999. The real economy can't absorb money so fast, and this flooded into financial assets. It created a bubble for Internet and biotech stocks."
>

If there is a big, inflationary, creation of money, it doesn't just land in biotech and internet zones. Those zones were pumped up by maniacal bidding. It doesn't take any extra money in a stock market to raise prices.

Vishesh doesn't understand that. If prices double right across the market tomorrow and people trade at those prices, it doesn't mean there is any more money in the world.

Anyway, it wasn't a simplistic money creation which Alan Green$pan did to avoid Y2K panic. He was judiciously ensuring that in the event of a Y2K crunch, there would be liquidity. The extra potential liquidity didn't cause any financial disruption.

The blowout to Nasdaq 5000 was due to maniacal bidding on stocks with no earnings or prospects of earnings at a level to justify the stock prices. Simple! Same on biotechs. Simple mania with no good valuation basis other than making a fast buck.

In 2001, people are going to learn that Alan Green$pan was NOT simplistically targeting the stock market with his interest rate increases. He was targeting the wealth effect and irrational exuberance. And he got them! And strangled them!

I think he has done a great job.

Mqurice
Dow 16,000 Feb 2002
QUALCOMM 201 in 2001
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