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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

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To: mightylakers who wrote (6357)	1/22/2001 11:26:27 AM
From: laodeng	Read Replies (4) of 197174

Thanks mightylakers for your help. I have learned many things on this thread for years. Also thanks for Ramsay's welcom speech :), it makes me speechless. To clear several points here 1. There are several large fabs are being built in China, some from Taiwanese manufactures. I think if Qualcomm can find fab capacity as well as Chippack's packaging inside China, the benefit will be huge for gaining chinese customers as well as gaining political clout. 2. ZTE's complain worries me that the rumored "built up" was not really starting yet. They may have ordered Sawtech's RF filters, but they certainly have not received any firm orders form Unicom. 3. WTO is only Qualcomm's problem superficially. It got a boost due to WTO and a delay by WTO. Qualcomm may have been a scapegoat after China was surprised by EU's tough stance for WTO negotiations on telecommunications. However, the real problem has been the tight technological control of the cdma standard. Bear in mind, the US still forces high-tech sanctions on China. Cdma has been in China for several years and limited to trial system. MII has been able to stop any cdma expansion mainly on the argument of tight tech control by the US. Many critics on cdma has been focused on chips rather than royalty in China. The big three have been able to limit competitions from chinese GSM manufacutures by depriving their parts supply as well as profitability. My point that the chip buying requirement in the original deal may have been the political poison that delayed cdma is based on many reading from the public available sources. Many manfactures in China claim they "self-developed" their cdma system. In many cases, they tried hard to cover the fact they have used Qualcomm chips. Tight tech control is very important for Qualcomm and shareholders without doubt. However, all the major players in China have both technology transfer agreements with some domestic manufactures. And they also invest in China heavily either building RD or manufacture facilities. The least needed is arrogance when you trying to break into a new market. Remember the infamous quote " we will refuse their request"? MII is dominated by tech-bureaucrats. They pay attention to very details of cdma development. In August a critical meeting was held which decided to go cdma IS95. The meeting requested by ZTE and others and may have Premier Zhu's blessing. The decision was praised all over the chinese press. Right after the meeting, there are two visits by MII ministers to ZTE to "INSPECT" their claim of "self-development". One visit was by Minister Wu himself. What happened from those visits only can be speculated as "not satisfactory" because cdma's voice was dead down again.

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